I just read two interesting anecdotes on Iowa Independent, one of which I can back up with my own, that may help fill in the picture tomorrow night if Obama is, indeed, the winner.
The first is this amazing small story told to John Deeth:
After the Clinton rally last night in Iowa City, a Clinton precinct captain sighed in frustration and, insisting on anonymity, shared this story. The precinct captain's friend, a school principal, had said he was trying to choose between Clinton and Obama. He was on his way into the rally when his cell phone rang. It was Obama.
Not a campaign staffer, a volunteer, or a robo-call. It was Barack Obama himself.
I was surprised to read that, because I was in Iowa canvassing for Obama last weekend and heard a related story that blew me away.
As we walked the streets of Iowa knocking on doors, a few of us were talking (of course) about Obama and undecided caucus-goers. One of the Obama organizers turned to me excitedly and said, "You know, he makes like 150 calls a day." I didn't really understand her point and said, "You mean to raise money or with the media?" She said, "No, OUR people. People in Iowa, in our districts, asking them for their support."
This was a huge surprise because I couldn't imagine a candidate calling someone individually to ask for support. I figured it must be one of those wacky Iowa-things that all the candidates did. Guess not. Given Deeth's story, it sounds like it actually might be a competitive advantage for Obama. Good for him!
The other bit I saw on the Iowa Independent that made me think, "Wow. We might really pull off a win in Iowa" was when I read this from Douglas Burns:
Here's another reason Obama will do well in western Iowa (and win the whole thing): Democrats listen to their Republican friends and family. They know who has the best shot against the Republicans in a general election.
It's such a small thing, but he's right. My Republican and Independent family and friends often say, "Yeah, I could see voting for Obama." (Though for most of the Republicans, I know they won't.) "But I'd never vote for Hillary." I even got my first ever, "But I'd never vote for Edwards" over Christmas. If I was in Iowa and undecided, I do think the opinions of the independents/moderates around me would affect my choice.
We'll see. No one really knows what is going to happen tomorrow. Obama could come in third. But if he comes in first, these are two small reasons that undoubtedly will have contributed to the win.